Is West Africa Headed Toward a Protracted Military Transition?

Introduction 

The past five years have seen military takeovers replace democratically elected governments in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and Niger. While the consequences of military takeovers continue to evolve, the regional body – the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) – has actively engaged with the military-led governments to develop transitional charters to restore constitutional order in the respective countries. While ECOWAS-negotiated transitions have been successful in the past, the current processes have stalled or are uncertain, invoking critical questions about the commitment of the military governments to democratic governance. This has led to uncertainty among critical stakeholders in and outside West Africa about the commitment of the military-led Transitional Governments to return to constitutional rule in a reasonable timeframe. In addition, military leaders continue to infringe on political rights and civic liberty while intimidating and incarcerating key political figures, journalists, and other activists, symptomatic of increasingly autocratic tendencies. 

Political Challenges  

Considering the pace and the evolving political situation in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, and Niger, there are no clear signs that the military authorities intend to leave power. Both countries have exceeded the transition timeline agreed upon with ECOWAS, publicly indicated that elections are not their priority until terrorists and other armed groups operating in their countries are defeated, and have suspended political parties’ activities. The military leadership in Guinea agreed with ECOWAS to a 24-month transition period starting in January 2023. With the transition timeline ending soon, no concrete measures have been advanced to return to a constitutional order before December 2024. Similarly, in Niger, since the ousting of President Bazoum in July 2023, no clear roadmap has been put in place for a transition to civilian leadership. Across all four countries, private media and independent journalists have become targets, and private radio and television stations (Espace, FIM, Rodio Omega RFI, TV-5, France 24, Jeune Afrique) across Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso have been banned from broadcasting.  

Regionally, in September 2023, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger announced their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and created l’Alliance des États du Sahel (or Alliance of Sahel States, AES). During a summit in Niamey in June 2024, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger also agreed to mutualize efforts to invest resources in agriculture, water, energy, and transportation, among others. The outcomes of this summit suggest that AES member countries may have finally decided to withdraw their membership from ECOWAS. This decision will be consequential for regional integration and security in West Africa. It will also embolden the military leaders to prolong the transitions while consolidating their regimes’ power. Still, mediation efforts are underway and could succeed in turning things around to maintain the three countries within ECOWAS.   

Security Challenges   

In part, each of the military authorities justified their takeovers by claiming that poor governance was failing to address the country's security challenges. However, security trends across the western Sahel region indicate a surge in insecurity since the military coups. Despite operations conducted against armed groups, terrorist-related attacks, kidnapping, cattle rustling, and other forms of banditry continue to escalate across these countries and even threaten to spread to coastal countries in West Africa. Between January and June 2024, for instance, over 474 armed attacks were recorded across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger between security forces and armed groups operating in the Sahel region. These violent incidents led to over 1,315 deaths, including civilians, suspected terrorists, and security personnel. In addition to the death toll, more than 1,000 people, including civilians, were injured by armed violence, and over 81 incidents of kidnapping were recorded during this period.  

The deteriorating security situation raises concerns over the effectiveness of the ongoing military responses by AES member states against armed groups and other criminal networks that operate in the Sahel region. Recent attacks have escalated the humanitarian crisis, creating internal displacements and refugee flows affecting the broader region. With armed groups strengthening their presence in communities already impacted by insecurity, the separation of AES member states from ECOWAS undermines regional coordination and support across sectors.  

The International Community and Political Transitions in West Africa 

In the past, ECOWAS has played a particularly crucial role in brokering transitions that returned civilian and constitutional democratic order. However, the recent military coups and their dynamics, including the creation of AES, have undermined ECOWAS efforts to press member states to restore constitutional order. The military governments and their supporters argue that ECOWAS has selectively applied sanctions and demanded adherence to the body’s protocols. In their view, ECOWAS fails to act when elected civilian leaders manipulate constitutional term limits, instead reserving sanctions for military regimes. Meanwhile, there is a general belief within the ECOWAS system that the military leaders in the coup-affected countries do not intend to relinquish power to civilians despite the continued efforts by the regional bloc. With the current political impasse, ECOWAS may face more challenges and command less influence over peace and security dynamics in the region.  

The Way Forward  

By consolidating power and removing opposition domestically while shifting their alliances regionally, military regimes in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, and Niger are entrenching their rule rather than transitioning. Power consolidation is shrinking civic space, affecting local economies, and creating hardships for citizens. Many of these changes have been made in the name of security, yet insecurity still proliferates.  

Given these dynamics, continued engagement with the military regimes is challenging but necessary. Reassessing ECOWAS systems and policies will be critical for establishing a consistent platform for ongoing engagement. For example, ECOWAS efforts are undermined by civilian leaders who continue to oppose the reforms of the ECOWAS Supplementary Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance. Reforms such as banning third presidential terms could remove a tool abused by military rulers and establish an important mechanism for peaceful transitions in the region.   

Furthermore, international actors such as the United States and the United Nations have a role in supporting ECOWAS and the wider region. At a time of shrinking civic discourse in the military-led countries, regional CSOs like WANEP, WADEMOS, WACSI play a major role in helping vital local civil society actors engage with the military leaders. Similarly, international actors can leverage influence to ensure that civil society and citizen voices are included in transitional negotiations.  

Finally, international actors can increase support to ECOWAS and African Union mediation efforts by providing financial and technical support. This will improve engagement and communication among stakeholders, paving the way for inclusive dialogue and peaceful political transitions in West Africa.